The False Promise of Rosebank

Appalled by the decision to approve the Rosebank project? You should be.

The International Energy Authority (IEA) – a quite conservative and hardly radical organisation – state in their landmark Net Zero Pathway report:

“By 2050, fossil fuel demand falls by 80%. As a result, no new long-lead-time upstream oil and gas projects are needed”.
https://www.iea.org/news/the-path-to-limiting-global-warming-to-1-5-c-has-narrowed-but-clean-energy-growth-is-keeping-it-open

If this is true globally, it is even more true for an advanced economy like the UK.

Our Government will no doubt claim we can use unproven carbon capture at scale, or deploy dodgy carbon accounting (we are world leaders in that at least), to claim they can still get to Net Zero, or ‘Not Zero’ as we should be calling it.

Rosebank is not about lowering bills and energy security as the Government claims, for several reasons:

• Every tonne of carbon dioxide we emit increases the risks of extreme weather events, crop failures and health hazards – that damages everyone’s security
• Most of the Rosebank output (oil) will be sold on international markets with UK consumers getting no preferential treatment in terms of bills or energy security
• Renewable energy costs have dropped massively and the UK has the capability to max out wind and solar
• Electrification will enable huge improvement in energy efficiency in transport and heating
• Electrification is future proofing – it can take electricity from any source (wind, wave, solar photovoltaic, etc) and at different scales (your roof, community energy, North Sea)
• Mixed signals creates market confusion that only delays the transition to a post fossil fuel secure and healthy future, and it harms our ability to show ambition and leadership
• The IPCC says that every year matters, every tonne of carbon matters, every action matters. We need our Government to listen to the great majority of UK citizens that say they want action.

(c) Richard W. Erskine, 2023