History taught in my young days often gave us a cartoon version of the past. A great example is that of King Canute who showed to his flattering courtiers that he could not turn back the tide; that his secular powers were no match for the almighty. It was a teaching moment by a wise King.
But of course this was mutated into a comical converse version of history: it became a poor old King Canute tried to turn back the tide, ha ha version of history.
King Donald, as he no doubt sees himself, also surrounded by flattering courtiers, believes he can turn back the tide of the green transition, but he can’t and he must not.
Christina Figueres in the piece Finding Optimisim In Outrage, guest editing a post on Katharine Hayhoe’s Talking Climate blog, uses a boulder metaphor:
“Clean energy is like a giant boulder that’s already reached its tipping point and is now rolling downhill toward a greener future. It’s got millions of hands on it, from individuals to some of the biggest countries, cities, and companies in the world. It could still be slowed by actions of governments and corporations—delays that will have serious consequences for people and planet alike—but it can’t be stopped. Gravity, history, and progress are on our side.“
The cost of renewables has fallen exponentially, and while there is a long way to go the boulder has passed a tipping point – we are on a rising trend on a typical S curve of transition:
“The S-curve is a well-established phenomenon where a successful new technology reaches a certain catalytic tipping point (typically 5-10% market share), and then rapidly reaches a high market share (i.e. 50%+) within just a couple more years once past this tipping point.”
So, like the tide the green transition cannot be turned back.
I wonder what future historians will make of King Donald?
Schoolchildren will no doubt laugh at his scientific illiteracy and attempts to hold back the tide, but in this case they will reflect an accurate interpretation of history.
Unlike the wise King Canute, the foolish King Donald truly believes he can hold back the green tide, but while he can throw spanners in the works – and S curves always have ups and downs along the way – he cannot hold back the tide.
Yet that is no reason now for all of us not to give that boulder a helping hand, to speed it on its way.
Back to work!
(c) Richard W. Erskine, 2024
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